Site Name

subglobal1 link | subglobal1 link | subglobal1 link | subglobal1 link | subglobal1 link | subglobal1 link | subglobal1 link
subglobal2 link | subglobal2 link | subglobal2 link | subglobal2 link | subglobal2 link | subglobal2 link | subglobal2 link
subglobal3 link | subglobal3 link | subglobal3 link | subglobal3 link | subglobal3 link | subglobal3 link | subglobal3 link
subglobal4 link | subglobal4 link | subglobal4 link | subglobal4 link | subglobal4 link | subglobal4 link | subglobal4 link
subglobal5 link | subglobal5 link | subglobal5 link | subglobal5 link | subglobal5 link | subglobal5 link | subglobal5 link
subglobal6 link | subglobal6 link | subglobal6 link | subglobal6 link | subglobal6 link | subglobal6 link | subglobal6 link
subglobal7 link | subglobal7 link | subglobal7 link | subglobal7 link | subglobal7 link | subglobal7 link | subglobal7 link
subglobal8 link | subglobal8 link | subglobal8 link | subglobal8 link | subglobal8 link | subglobal8 link | subglobal8 link

small logo
News

Somalia: The Strategy Behind an Ethiopian Pullback

 

Stratfor Today
January 13, 2009 | 2104 GMT

Ethiopian troops pulled out of four bases in the Somalian capital, Mogadishu, on Jan. 13. The withdrawal occurred at bases in neighborhoods of northern Mogadishu that are trongholds of al Shabab, a hard-line Islamist militia. Ethiopia, which has about 3,000 troops in Somalia, had announced about six weeks ago that it intended to make such a pullback. It also is likely to withdraw troops from its 10 other bases in Mogadishu, though the pullback does not mean Ethiopia is abandoning the fight.  Related Links Ethiopia has maintained its intervention in Somalia since 2006 for two purposes. One was to become a key ally of the United States in trying to block the al Qaeda-linked al Shabab from establishing Somalia as a base of operations for al Qaeda. (This move meant Ethiopia would not only receive U.S. material assistance, but also effectively be shielded by the United States from criticisms of human rights violations that it was facing at the time.) The other reason was Addis Ababa's national security imperative of preventing Somalian Islamists, whom the Ethiopians have fought for decades, from collaborating with ethnic Somali rebels in Ethiopia to carve up Ethiopian territory and wage insurgent attacks against the Ethiopian government. The Ethiopian troop pullback comes amid Addis Ababa's criticism of the Somalian government and the international community for failing to share the burdens and costs of its intervention in Somalia. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian presence in Somalia has been a popular rallying cry for Islamists claiming to be defending the country against foreign and Christian occupation.

The withdrawal from Mogadishu does not mean Ethiopia is pulling out of Somalia, however. National security imperatives will continue to drive Ethiopia's involvement in Somalia. Addis Ababa likely will maintain troops in garrison towns in southern and central Somalia as a forward line of defense and to maintain supply lines to support proxies against al Shabab. To that end, Ethiopia has armed and provided funding for clan militias in central Somalia, and it is likely behind the creation of the Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, a militia that has fought al Shabab in central Somalia and claims to defend the interests of moderate Islamists in the country. The Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca likely will take the fight to Mogadishu, keeping the city a violent hive of insurgent and counterinsurgent warfare under no undisputed control while enabling the Ethiopian withdrawal. Separately from the Ethiopians, an African Union peacekeeping mission still provides security in Mogadishu, though its approximately 3,000 Ugandan and Burundian troops are unable to secure sites beyond Mogadishu's international airport and seaport or provide personal protection to Somalian government officials.

The Ethiopian pullback from bases in Mogadishu signals that the troops are no longer directly combating hard-line Islamists in Somalia. But the move away from the Somalian capital is likely part of a staged withdrawal to garrison towns in the Somalian countryside and along the Somalian-Ethiopian border, from where the Ethiopians will support a proxy war against al Shabab.

Source: Stratfor



Opinions published on News and Views section of this site are those of the authors and not necessarily that of OLF.

Copyright ©2005 ABO/OLF All Rights Reserved | Email Webmaster olfinfodesk@earthlink.net